I plan for betrayal. I plan for backstabbing; I plan for reunion and forgiveness long before they happen – Tinubu.
No doubt, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, BAT, is a thoroughbred politician. Calculative, smart and bold; he’s a man that can’t be taken by surprise. He plans for the long haul, and he leaves nothing to chance.
A wily politician of fortune, he’s been the dominant figure in South West politics since 1999 when the army left the political scene. As a leading figure in the National Democratic Coalition, NADECO, the movement that emerged from the ashes of the annulment of the June 12, 1993 Presidential election that was clearly won by M.K.O Abiola, Tinubu was one of the leaders of this group which confronted late maximum ruler, Gen. Sanni Abacha, when he attempted to entrench his brutal regime and frustrate the post – annulment agitation.
It was in the trenches of the NADECO, the pro-democracy movement that Tinubu became close to the militant The NEWS media group and its leaders, like Bayo Onanuga, Babafemi Ojudu, now a Presidential Adviser, and other radical journalists who were to become his close associates when he became the Governor of Lagos State in 1999.
Other leading figures of the Pro-democracy movement like Nobel Laurent, Prof. Wole Soyinka, became close to Tinubu during the NADECO era. The professor has attested to the Jagaban’s contribution to the movement in terms of funding and logistics.
After Abacha’s sudden death, it became easy for Tinubu, who had already gained prominence politically, to be in contention of the Afenifere – backed Alliance for Democracy, AD, the Yoruba party that was popular in the South West at the time.
Tinubu showed himself as a political gladiator in his quest to become the candidate of the AD, despite resistance in some quarters within the Afenifere group. He was more or less a compromise candidates when the popular Funsho Williams stepped down for him and publicly announced his support for Tinubu, thanks to last minute negotiation that spurned this outcome.
With the Jagaban in the saddle as Governor of Lagos State, he began to gradually build what has become his massive network, which strategic placements of his mentees and political disciples in key power centres in Lagos State. Obviously, Tinubu looked beyond his two-term mandatory tenure as Governor.
Having already groomed a core group of loyalists and trusted political appointees like Lai Mohammed, Babatunde Raji Fashola, both his former chief of staff as Governor; Rauf Aregbesola, who was his Commissioner for Works, Akinwumni Ambode, Prof Yemi Osinbajo, Muiz Banire and scores of other close associates, Tinubu was able to consolidate his hold on political power in Lagos State.
It was, therefore, easy for him to install Babatunde Fashola as his successor as Lagos State Governor in 2007. After just one-term, Tinubu tried to stop Fashola from going for a second term when the godfather fell out with his Governor; but after prolonged infighting, the Jagaban allowed his man to finish the good work he had begun in Lagos State.
Moreover, it would have amounted to political suicide to stop Fashola at that point because of his popularity as a great performer. Tinubu succumbed to political expediency and let the Governor complete his term, but their chummy relationship had been ruptured and Fashola could no longer be trusted by the BAT political organization and powerful machinery. Fashola’s plight signaled the beginning of the crack in Tinubu’s political family.
The choice of Akinwunmi Ambode as Governor, despite objections by Fashola’s sympathizers, and his subsequent victory over the PDP candidate in the 2015 Governorship election, confirmed BAT’s political clout in the politics of the state.
Ambode continued the brilliant performance of Fashola to the admiration of almost all political power brokers. In just two years in office, his second term ticket was virtually assured, or so it seemed, until crisis erupted in the BAT group over the Governor’s alleged disloyalty to the Jagaban.
Obviously, Ambode underestimated the power of his godfather, hoping in vain that with his sterling performance in office and popularity in the state, he’d be able to arm-twist Tinubu and get a well deserved second term. It was not to be!
After fierce brinkmanship, Ambode lost his second term bid and the rest is history. He is seen today as Tinubu’s enemy No 2 after Fashola.
However, Fashola and Ambode’s cases were markedly different from Musiliui Obanikoro, Rauf Aregbesola, Muiz Banire and Babafemi Ojudu, all former close associates of BAT. Aregbesola, a former Commissioner for Works in Lagos, rode on the back of Tinubu’s political machinery to become a two – term Governor in his native Osun State. His recent feud with his erstwhile godfather surprised even their most ardent followers.
Aregbe wanted to build his own power base in Osun state by halting the second term quest of the incumbent Governor, Gbeyega Oyetola, his former chief of staff, who is a cousin of Tinubu and supplant the Governor with his own candidate.
The ambitious Aregbe, the most powerful associate of the Jagaban, and loyal hatchet man, openly attacked the overbearing influence of his godfather. No one in the Tinubu camp has crossed the line as Aregbe has done.
If there was any doubt about disunity in the BAT dynasty, Aregbe’s recent public outburst against the Jagaban removed all the lingering doubts. Coming shortly after this was Ojudu’s open declaration of opposition to the Tinubu presidency. Banire was quieter in his conflict with his former boss. After they fell out, he seemed to have patched things up with the strongman.
However, Aregbe and Ojudu remain adamant and unrepentant. Perhaps, Ojudu’s grouse with BAT could be his ambition to rule his native Ekiti State, which does not seem to enjoy the backing of the powerful APC kingmaker. Now Tinubu, the kingmaker wants to be king, in the 2023 general election.
For a truth, the support of his disgruntled associates could have helped his presidential project, but it does little to frustrate it. BAT has spread his powerful political tentacles across the nation, especially the North, where crucial votes normally come from. With or without Aregbe, Ambode and Co, Tinubu could win the Presidential nomination of the party. Whether he can go on to win the election is a different matter altogether.
His two nominees in the just concluded APC convention, Iyiola Omisore (National Secretary), and Dayo Israel (National Youth Leader), were approved. This means that he now has a strong presence in the party’s secretariat, which goes a long way to help his influence on the administrative machinery of the ruling party. Israel, as youth leader, says a lot about the ability of the Jagaban to also mobilize the youth in his favour.
Today’s troops would determine Tinibu’s victory, no doubt, even though everyone’s support counts.
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