It’s normal to expect the 2023 Presidential election to be very competitive in a country where politics is the most viable business option for the political elite.
At the last count, more than 20 presidential aspirants have announced their intentions to run for the office of president in 2023.
After the nominations by the two main parties, APC and the PDP, the two major candidates would emerge.
A lot of infighting, intrigues, and underground maneuverings are expected in the coming weeks in both parties to determine who flies the banner of the individual parties.
APC is unlikely to yield power to the rival PDP in the forthcoming contest because of the proverbial federal might, even though, most Nigerians are unhappy with its seven years of unprecedented misrule.
Although, President Muhammadu Buhari, who’s not eligible to contest, is definitely interested in who his successor would be.
He has vowed not to hand over the country back to looters, meaning the PDP, although the APC has it’s a fair share of looters.
However, APC power brokers are surprised that the President is coy about who will succeed him from the multitude of aspirants that are jostling to take the job.
Wily Lagos APC national leader and heavyweight, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the first time declared his presidential ambition. Ordinarily, BAT is expected to get Buhari’s support, but the present realities point to a president who is unwilling to back his benefactor as widely expected.
Although Buhari remains publicly grateful for Tinubu’s help in facilitating his elections in 2015 and 2019, he appears reluctant to openly endorse the Lagos strongman. Why? The answer is open to speculation.
Some commentators have pointed out Mr. Tinubu’s alleged baggage, but every politician has their fair share of negatives.
Although, despite not having been convicted by any court of law for corruption, BAT is haunted by accusations of corruption and illegal acquisition of wealth. To what extent this made Buhari deny him public endorsement is still unknown.
However, the declaration of Vice President Yemi Osinbajo for president has jolted many political watchers and complicated matters for BAT.
Osinbajo’s entry into the race has made it keener, more competitive, and interesting.
Although, the APC has zoned the presidential office to the southwest, the declaration of other aspirants like Osinbajo, and in the coming weeks, Ibikunle Amosun, a close ally of the President, Kayode Fayemi and possibly, Babatunde Fashola, means that, their mentor, Tinubu doesn’t have their backing after all.
Southwest politicians, especially in Tinubu’s camp were expected to queue behind him but that hasn’t been the case.
Instead, his boys are becoming audacious as they declare their independence from the Godfather.
Rauf Aregbesola’s open rebellion as displayed in his recent public fight with his mentor not only stunned many observers, it clearly signaled the deep division in the BAT camp and, perhaps, the gradual loss of influence of the APC national leader.
How all these would turn out for the Jagaban and the southwest presidential aspirants in the nomination battle ahead, would depend on the political maturity of leaders of the region’s power brokers and their northern partners.
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