Jagaban: Fighting The Battle Of His Life

By Our Corresponden

In this Four-part series,we look at the chances of the Presidential candidates in the 2023 general election.

Since 1999 when Nigeria returned to full-fledged democracy, at no point in time have we had the kind of calibre of presidential aspirants as the ones we are having for the 2023 presidential elections. From Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi to Rabiu Kwankwaso, we are faced with a plethora of thoroughbred politicians and successful businessmen. As we say often, men of timbre and calibre; men who have been tested and tried and who have come out with their heads high.
Beginning from this week we shall present these candidates one after the other, looking at their strengths, their weaknesses and their chances of ascending to the zenith of Aso Rock where the winner will preside over Nigeria, her Peoples and her economy. We begin today with the All Presidential Congress(APC) Presidential candidate(APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Emi Lokan exponent

🔵His strengths

* A shrewd strategist

You may love him or you may hate him. But one thing you cannot take away from the profile of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the fact that he is a shrewd politician, a quintessential leader and a brilliant strategist. After a successful career in multinationals, including Mobil, Tinubu joined the political firmament and has since grown in stature and status.
Fondly called the Lion of Bourdillon and the godfather of Lagos State, he grew in eminence to become the leader of South West politics and now the national leader of the ruling party. In business, Tinubu is a success. In politics, he has gained the status of a colossus.
In traversing these pathways, Tinubu has been able to build for himself men and women who still remain loyal to his aspirations. Let the truth be told, none of the presidential candidates can boast of the spread of loyalty and followership that Asiwaju commands. This is a plus for him going into the elections.

*Shettima/ the northern support

Many see his choice of former Borno State governor, Senator Kashim Shettima as the vice presidential candidate as a right choice. They regard Shettima as a shining light of the party and that his emergence as running mate will boost Tinubu’s chances. Shettima is regarded by party faithful as a man of competence, innovation, compassion, integrity and fairness. They say his performance when he was the governor and his large followership in the North will have a positive bearing on the aspiration of Tinubu.

*Huge northern electoral support

It is always assumed in Nigeria that nobody can win any presidential election in Nigeria if he doesn’t have huge northern support. This could be true to an extent if we consider the spread of eligible voters across the country.
Today, there are 96,303,028 million registered voters in Nigeria, according to data from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Of this number, 84,004,084 registered voters were recorded in 2019 while the just ‘concluded’ Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) shows that another 12,298,944 million Nigerians have been added to INEC voter register database.
A further analysis of this shows that the largest geopolitical zone by the number of states, the North-West, which compromises Kano, Kebbi, Katsina, Sokoto, Jigawa, Kaduna, and the Zamfara States have the highest voting strength during the presidential election.
In 2019, the North-West had the highest number of PVC collected at 18,231,193.
The region is most likely to maintain that voting power in the 2023 election.
The Northwest also leads in the just concluded CVR with 2,514,273 residents of the region who completed the new voter registration which ended July 31, 2022.
It is believed that with the northern support for Tinubu and Shettima, the way is already clear for them. This huge northern voters’ strength is said to be to Tinubu’s advantage.

* The power of incumbency

All over the world, the power of incumbency has always tilted in the favour of the ruling party. This is the power to use the elected office for political gain. Depending on the office it can direct funds to projects that benefit supporters or punish opponents. Tinubu was instrumental in bringing President Muhammadu Buhari to power and it is believed that Buhari may use the power of incumbency to ensure that the APC is returned to power. The overall power of incumbency is to be able to deliver results that a challenger to the same office can only promise to deliver. Tinubu will likely be a beneficiary of this arrangement.

*Solid financial base

Winning a presidential election in Nigeria is a costly venture. Tinubu is extremely rich and is ready to deploy his huge financial muscle in the coming election. He proved this in the 2019 presidential election when he rolled out the bullion vans to help APC win the election in Lagos state.

*Spread of states in control

Besides its grip in South West states, the APC is in control of 22 states including the FCT. Should the party win all the states where it is in control, it will need three more states to meet The required 25 states. This surely is to Tinubu’s advantage.

🔵His weaknesses

*Poor performance of Buhari
The poor performance of President Muhammadu Buhari and the APC government will definitely affect the chances of Tinubu becoming the next President of Nigeria. The government that Tinubu helped to nurture and bring Nigeria’s debt stock has astronomically risen from N12 trillion under the PDP to N41.6 trillion with our nation going broke as Debt Servicing cost has now surpassed Government revenue with over N300 billion. Millions of businesses have been shut down due to harsh economic policies and the high cost of fuel, unemployment that has risen to over 35%, cost of food items, medication, and essential services, have skyrocketed beyond reach as over 90 million Nigerians are no longer able to afford their daily meals and other basic necessities of life.
In all honesty, Tinubu can not separate himself from the calamity that has become the government of Buhari.
There is palpable anger in the land and Nigerians who have suffered under the choking throes of this government are saying they will reject this party of fraudsters, liars, deceivers, perjurers, swindlers, and corrupt individuals again. This will surely count against Tinubu.

* A Yoke And A Baggage Over Him
Tinubu has always been a politician shrouded in controversy. He is still battling with issues of alleged perjury, non-existent certificates and allegations of extortions. Tinubu is believed to be one of Nigeria’s richest men.
He has become more ethically challenged and lost all moral standing to seek election as the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

* Shettima’s Choice.
More than being an advantage, Tinubu’s choice of Shettima as his running mate in the election could be a big distraction, going by the outrage it sparked from various quarters, especially from the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) which rejected a Muslim-Muslim ticket. It is believed that most Christians across the country are going to reject them at the polls based on this choice.

* His Failing health
He is believed to be suffering from Pakistan syndrome, a degenerative sickness that does not allow the sufferer to perform optimally. Many Nigerians believe that voting Tinubu would mean handing over the presidency to the North again by proxy.