Our focus today is on Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP). Obi’s popularity and fame have grown tremendously, becoming a social media sensation, since he joined the Labour Party from the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP). A former governor of Anambra state , can Obi become the joker in the 2023 presidential election? We look at odds in his favour and the ones against him.
Odds For Obi
1. A revolution driven by angry youths
Nobody can truly say how the Peter Obi revolution that has now threatened the status quo of Nigeria’s political quotient started. But the fact remains that it is a movement started by youths and sustained by youths who have been so disillusioned about the way the country has been run since 199. Nigerian masses have been desperately looking for a paradigm shift from the corrupt over-bloated, aging and prideful politicians. That was the message they brought to bear during the EndSARS protest. For a long time the Nigerian masses have been deceived and kept divided with religion and other primordial sentiments
Corrupt politicians have deployed the divide-and-rule system to perpetually keep themselves in power to the detriment of all.
And like they say, suffering has no tribal marks. Politics has left the country merely a geographical expression with the masses incapacitated and unable to build a nation. The youths see Peter Obi as the bridge with which Nigerians can cross into nationhood, and build a nation that will work for all, regardless of creed and tongue. This is also in line with his campaign philosophy of a new beginning.
2. Impact of opinion polls/surveys
All over the world, just before elections, opinion polls have always predicted the path that results of an election will take. They also have the capacity to sway votes in a predictable direction. Sometimes they are totally correct, at other times they are not. But generally polls or surveys provide a vital tool for understanding the choices before registered voters. With months left until the presidential election scheduled for February 25, 2023, three surveys conducted by reputable organizations have predicted victory for Obi if the election is held today.
NOI, a survey commissioned by Atedo Peterside’s ANAP Foundation puts Obi on 21 percent, and Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Bola Tinubu of APC tied on 13 percent, while Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP at 3 percent. Daily Trust survey gave Obi 64 percent, Tinubu 16 percent, and Atiku, 14 percent. The latest poll by Bloomberg News, a U.S. news outlet by Premise Data Corp, puts Obi on a massive 72 percent, ahead of other candidates. Of those still undecided, 45 percent said Obi is their preferred candidate. The results of these surveys, even if they are mere estimates, have heated up the camps of the APC and PDP. The manner they have rushed to the media attempting to discredit the surveys.
3. The Christian population
The other factor that may work in Obi’s favour is the support he is already receiving from the Christian community across the country. This is a fallout of the Muslim-Muslim ticket of the APC and the reason that it was based on competence and merit and not sentiment. The questions Christians have therefore been asking is: does it mean that there are competent northern Christians in APC that can be chosen as the running mate to Bola Tinubu? This indiscretion by the A0C no doubt, has swelled sentiments towards Obi as the Christians now see him as “our own candidate.” This is reflective of the massive reception he has been receiving as he visits the churches canvassing for their support.
4. Experience/ integrity
Like Tinubu and Atiku, Obi having being a two-term governor of Anambra state, has all that is required to lead the country. But what sets him apart from Tinubu and Atiku is that of the three leading presidential candidates, he appears to be less-corrupt and have more integrity. That is why people are gravitating towards him. Tinubu Has a yoke of corruption hanging over him, the same as Atiku. Obi appears to be different. If this perception is appropriately harnessed, it could work in his favour.
Odds Against Obi
1. The Nigerian corrupt elite
This group of persons have held Nigeria down since independence. They see the country as their personal estate. They cut across the ethnic political and business groups. Their only interest is in enriching themselves. Obi is clearly an outsider in this group. As one writer puts it, “how does Peter Obi hope to win among people who hate deductical analysis? Obi cannot be trusted to join in the heisting of the commonwealth. What manner of politician leaves the kind of money he left in the coffers of Anambra State-USD86 billion and N9 billion in liquid cash! Obi can be President on Mars or another planet, certainly not in Nigeria. He will ruin the party for the political rogues. Who wants a killjoy?” The masses may vote and unless President Buhari allows the votes to count, Obi may at the end of the day labour in vain.
2. IPOB project
It is more than 50 years since the Nigerian civil war involving the Igbos was fought. Yet, many Nigerians are scared that the Igbo cannot be trusted with the presidency of the country as they may seize the opportunity and create their own country out of Nigeria. The consistent agitation of the Independent Peoples of Biafra, IPOB, for self determination has clearly created a mistrust among other ethnic groups and this will likely work against Obi.
3. Inability to galvanize his popularity
Although Obi is clearly more popular in the social media among other presidential aspirants, one thing that is surely going to work against him is his independent mindedness and inability to galvanize the support he is receiving into concrete votes. Recently, the Labour Party organized a roundtable for governorship, Senatorial and house of representatives candidates of the party in Abuja. Everybody had expected Obi to be at the meeting. He stayed back in Lagos and gave flimsy excuses that the protest by students at the airport was responsible. One of the governorship candidates came out of the meeting berating Obi that he has failed to provide the leadership that the party expected him to provide. He said Obi was working independently of the party and this will surely work against him in the February 2023 elections.
4. Regional spread of Registered voters/ mandatory 25%
Nigerians have always voted along ethnic, regional and religious lines. The 2023 election would not be a remarkable difference. If you consider the spread of registered voters on this basis, it would be a miracle if Obi wins.
According to INEC, the North-West and South-West geopolitical zones lead in voter registration with 22,672,373 and 18,332,191 eligible voters,
An update published on the INEC website showed that 96,303,016 people registered before the voter registration was suspended on July 31.
The North-West, comprising seven states (Jigawa, Kaduna, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara), have 22,672,373 eligible voters. The South-West region comprising Lagos, Oyo, Ondo, Osun and Ekiti followed closely with a total of 18,332,191 voters.
The North-Central came third with 15,680,438 registered voters, a little above the South-South with 15,299,374. The North-East has 12,820,363 voters registered so far. The South-East has 11,498,277 eligible voters.
What this means is that assuming the entire south east and south south votes for Obi, he still will not make the required 25 per cent to be elected president. The North surely will vote for their own while they will vote for Tinubu.
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